Project risk

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For the last 10 years, Elseware has gained significant experience in project risk management.
We have developed methodologies and tools that have given organizations, project leaders and executives the necessary visibility to assure their decision making processes were safe and reliable.

We can help at three different levels :

  • At the strategic level to support investment decisions while taking into account risks and opportunities
  • At the project management level to help select a scenario based on risk analysis
  • At the operational level to assess the risks attached to a given scenario and build an effective mitigation strategy.

Expertise & tools

Each level at which we can help (investment, program management, and project management) necessitates a dedicated approach.
Investment related decisions are supported by strategic risk modelling tools that comprehend all of the economic, geopolitical, and technological factors. In order to do so, we use probabilistic models (Bayesian networks) fully integrated within the traditional financial analysis carried out during project evaluation (NAV, IRR, etc.).
Scenarii are determined using Bayesian networks and/or Monte Carlo simulations as applied to large-scale planning.
Project risk assessment is based on a mapping method inspired by ARM and on a critical path determination that take all risks into account thru a Monte Carlo simulation. This method allows for a strong connection between the operational management part of the project and that of risk management : our observation is indeed that in 90% of all cases, risk mapping and project scheduling are poorly associated by project managers.

Achievements

We have been involved in the following industrial sectors : defense, ground transportation, oil and energy. In order to enhance the safeguarding of major projects or complex programs, our contribution called for the development of the following :

  • Risk mapping, listing of major risks and appropriate leveraging.
  • Dedicated tool allowing for the assessment of penalties, delays, and budget overruns as a function of leveraging strategies.