Operational Risk Measurement

Measure oprisk with data, not guesswork

Equip your risk teams with structured scenario modelling tools powered by the XOI method and 20 years of global regulatory expertise.

MSTAR — Scenario Analysis
XOI model graph
Graph showing XO1 model with nodes for service, attack type, and metrics leading to impact, exposure, and occurrence.
Risk distribution
AcuteSevereHighMedLowMinor
RemoteUnlikelyPossibleLikelyV. Likely
Expected Loss$0.5M
Extreme Loss$50M
Frequency0.075
XOI model graph
Risk distribution
AcuteSevereHighMedLowMinor
RemoteUnlikelyPossibleLikelyV. Likely
Expected Loss$30M
Extreme Loss$3.2BN
Frequency0.05
XOI model graph
Graph showing supplier factors like disruption and bankruptcy influencing exposure, occurrence, impact in an XO1 model.
Risk distribution
AcuteSevereHighMedLowMinor
RemoteUnlikelyPossibleLikelyV. Likely
Expected Loss$3M
Extreme Loss$25M
Frequency3
XOI model graph
Graph showing XOI model with BusinessLine linked to Employees, Fraud, TypicalAmt, Limit, Intensity and final impact factors.
Risk distribution
AcuteSevereHighMedLowMinor
RemoteUnlikelyPossibleLikelyV. Likely
Expected Loss$1.5M
Extreme Loss$95M
Frequency0.01
XOI model graph
Diagram showing XOI model graph with market factors linked to exposure, occurrence, and impact outcomes.
Risk distribution
AcuteSevereHighMedLowMinor
RemoteUnlikelyPossibleLikelyV. Likely
Expected Loss$25M
Extreme Loss$85M
Frequency300

The world's leading financial institutions trust Elseware

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Elseware by the numbers

20+
years of operational risk expertise
40
scenarios covered in MSTAR Library
500+
scenarios customized for our clients

The XOI Method

A rigorous framework built for business

Helped clients in multiple jurisdictions — UK, US and EU — get approved by regulators. XOI measures operational risk in business terms, not in risk jargon.

X

Exposure

The number of resources independently exposed to an event. Examples include employees for fraud, suppliers for disruption, trades for errors, and products for mis-selling.

O

Occurrence

The probability of an event occurring for a particular resource. This probability may depend on the resource itself, firm controls, and external circumstances.

I

Impact

The cost of the event if it occurs for one particular resource. This cost is variable and depends on the resource itself, firm controls, and external circumstances.

Loss = X × O × I

Exposure × Occurrence × Impact

The full distribution of potential losses is computed via Monte Carlo simulation over X, O and I

Examples of XOI decomposition

Cyber-attack on Critical Service
Exposed Units: Important Business Services (IBS)
Occurrence: DDOS or malware attack disrupting the service for more than 4 hours
Impact: (Loss of Revenue + Client Compensation)*Duration
Mis-selling of retail product
Exposed Units: Retail products of the bank
Occurrence: Systemic mis-selling for a significant fraction of clients
Impact: Revenue *Fraction mis-sold* Duration
Supplier failure
Exposed Units: Key Suppliers of the bank
Occurrence:  Technical Disruption or bankruptcy
Impact: Daily impact * Time to switch
Wire transfer internal fraud
Exposed Units:  Employees in position to perpetrate the fraud
Occurrence:  Fraud
Impact: Typical Amount * Number of fraudulent operations
Trading Error (fat fingers)
Exposed Units: High-touch trades (cash or futures)
Occurrence:  Error in capture or execution
Impact: TradeAmount * MarketChange* ErrorFactor

Use Cases

Solutions for every business
or regulatory challenge

01

Regulatory or Economic Capital

Assess capital exposure for major operational risks via structured XOI scenarios, approved in regulatory models across the UK, US and Europe.

02

Risk Appetite Allocation

Translate your firm's risk appetite into quantified scenario-level thresholds, linked directly to business units and control environments.

03

Stress Tests & CCAR

Design and execute rigorous stress tests for regulatory exercises, with direct integration into management reporting and risk appetite frameworks.

04

Insurance Optimisation

Tailor your insurance programmes to your risk profile: scenario mapping, deductible structuring, limits analysis and cost-benefit optimisation.

Trusted by Industry Experts

Trusted by Industry Experts

The XOI approach was a 'Eureka!' moment in my journey on operational risk. Coming from a market risk background, I had the impression that beyond the definition of operational risk, it was difficult to find a book that described a coherent framework for measuring and managing operational risk.

Olivier Vigneron

CRO EMEA · JPMorgan Chase & Co.

The XOI approach was a 'Eureka!' moment in my journey on operational risk. Coming from a market risk background, I had the impression that beyond the definition of operational risk, it was difficult to find a book that described a coherent framework for measuring and managing operational risk.

Olivier Vigneron

CRO EMEA · JPMorgan Chase & Co.

The XOI approach was a 'Eureka!' moment in my journey on operational risk. Coming from a market risk background, I had the impression that beyond the definition of operational risk, it was difficult to find a book that described a coherent framework for measuring and managing operational risk.

Olivier Vigneron

CRO EMEA · JPMorgan Chase & Co.

The XOI approach was a 'Eureka!' moment in my journey on operational risk. Coming from a market risk background, I had the impression that beyond the definition of operational risk, it was difficult to find a book that described a coherent framework for measuring and managing operational risk.

Olivier Vigneron

CRO EMEA, JPMorgan Chase & Co.

The XOI approach measures operational risk by identifying and quantifying key loss drivers in business terms, not risk management jargon. It can be used for risk appetite setting and monitoring. I strongly believe the XOI approach has the potential to become an industry standard

Emile Dunand

ORM Scenarios & Stress Testing, Credit Suisse.

The key benefits of the XOI method are to provide an approach to understand, manage and quantify risks and, at the same time, to provide a robust framework for capital modeling. Thanks to this method, we have been able to demonstrate the business benefits of operational risk management.

Michael Sicsic

Head of Supervision, FCA

The XOI methodology provides a structured, robust, forward-looking, and easy-to-understand approach for modeling operational risk scenarios. This book offers practical guidance on how risk managers, risk modellers, and scenario owners can collaborate to model operational risk scenarios consistently

Michael Furnish

Head of Model Governance and Operational Risk, Aviva.

The XOI method is the most comprehensive quantitative and analytical framework that I have encountered for the identification, assessment and management of Operational Risk. I have employed it for five years and found it both usable and effective. I recommend this book as essential reading for senior risk managers.

C.S. Venkatakrishnan

CRO, Barclays

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